(DCNF)—Germany’s once-mighty auto industry is trembling under pressure that strikes at the heart of that country’s national psyche.
Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW, the industrial icons that helped define modern Germany’s former economic might, are reeling from a toxic mix of American tariffs, a botched electric vehicle transition and relentless competition from Chinese manufacturers.
Sales in China, long a key profit engine for these companies, have cratered. Volkswagen moved 26% fewer vehicles there in recent periods. Mercedes saw a 28% drop and BMW slumped 20%.
Company executives are now considering factory closures, model cancellations and tens of thousands of job cuts. Such moves would slow the bleeding, but they’re akin to putting Band-Aids on a bullet wound.
Chinese rivals churn out new models in 18 months or less while Western firms lumber along on multi-year cycles. The result is cheaper, better-equipped EVs flooding markets and eroding the Germans’ once-dominant position.
As so often is the case when Western firms enter joint ventures with Chinese companies, what initially were lucrative partnerships have devolved into liabilities. For decades German brands enjoyed massive profits from China’s booming market through these joint ventures.
Beijing’s engineers watched, learned and invested heavily with state subsidies. Now they outpace the teachers on the technology that Brussels and Washington insisted would define the future.
What is happening to German carmakers now is the predictable outcome of governments forcing a rapid shift to electric vehicles while China controlled the supply chains for batteries, critical minerals and the manufacturing scale to undercut everyone else on price and speed.
German labor protections and consensus management, long sources of strength, have proven slow to adapt. The EU’s stubborn clinging to climate alarm dogma has only amplified the problem.
Here, it is key to point out that the U.S. auto industry is not immune to the same forces.
Chinese manufacturers already dominate global EV production and have demonstrated they can deliver high-quality vehicles at prices Detroit and America’s European, Japanese and Korean transplants struggle to match without heavy taxpayer support.
High tariffs have so far kept most Chinese cars out of American showrooms, but the pressure is building through third-country assembly and sheer volume elsewhere. The same dynamics that hollowed out German market share in China — state-directed investment, aggressive pricing and rapid iteration — are aimed at every major global market.
The elimination of the Inflation Reduction Act’s massive EV subsidies only accelerates the coming day of reckoning. Those $7,500 per unit buyer credits and related manufacturing incentives artificially propped up demand for vehicles that were often more expensive and less practical than conventional alternatives for most buyers. When the OBBBA terminated the key EV tax credits after Sept. 30, 2025, that market distortion vanished.
The government-forced EV transition was always a political project more than an economic one. Its central conceit was that Western firms could out-innovate China while regulators layered on mandates, content rules and green requirements that raised costs, i.e., the Gavin Newsom plan.
China, unconstrained by such virtue signaling nonsense and armed with deliberate industrial strategy, pulled ahead. German carmakers learned this the hard way in their most important growth market. Now, U.S. firms risk learning it in their home market if complacency sets in.
Detroit and the foreign brands with big American footprints still have advantages: established dealer networks, brand loyalty in trucks and SUVs and a customer base that still prefers internal combustion or hybrids for range and refueling convenience.
But those advantages will continue to erode if Chinese vehicles keep improving while American costs stay elevated by regulation, high labor costs and other competitive disadvantages like the need to import parts and materials from — you guessed it — China.
Ford CEO Jim Farley put it bluntly recently, telling an all-employee event that he believes Chinese cars will be allowed into the American market within the next five to 10 years, and Ford must be prepared for the invasion.
President Donald Trump has tried to protect the U.S. industry with tariffs, but adverse rulings by the Supreme Court could render that defense fleeting in the coming years.
Then what happens?
Germany’s car industry is showing us what happens in real time, and the results are not encouraging for Detroit’s future.
David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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