(Substack)—President Trump has laid out a clear path forward for stronger economic ties with India, one that prioritizes American interests while pressuring adversaries like Russia. As negotiations wrap up, the U.S. stands ready to drop tariffs on Indian goods sharply, provided New Delhi curbs its heavy reliance on Russian oil. This move could open doors for American farmers and energy producers, fostering growth at home and weakening Moscow’s grip on global markets.
Details from recent reports show Washington prepared to reduce duties on Indian exports from the current 50% down to 15%-16%. In return, India would phase out its substantial imports of Russian crude.
President Trump shared insights from a phone conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, stating, “He’s not going to buy much oil from Russia. He wants to see that war end as much as I do. He wants to see the war end with Russia, Ukraine, and as you know, they’re not going to be buying too much oil.”
This potential agreement arrives after months of tension. Back in August, the U.S. imposed an extra 25% tariff on Indian products as a direct response to New Delhi’s ongoing Russian oil deals, pushing total rates to 50%. Indian officials have pushed for measures to keep energy prices stable if they shift away from Moscow’s supply, recognizing the need for reliable alternatives—potentially from American sources.
India’s role as a major buyer of Russian oil has grown dramatically since the Ukraine conflict began in 2022. Shipments jumped from a mere 50,000 barrels per day in 2020 to 1.6 million in the first half of this year, making India the second-largest importer after China. Cutting these ties would deal a blow to Russia’s war funding, aligning with U.S. goals to isolate aggressors economically.
On the U.S. side, benefits extend beyond tariffs. India plans to expand its quota for non-genetically modified corn imports from America, currently capped at 0.5 million tonnes with a 15% duty. This could mean more opportunities for American agriculture, boosting rural economies and trade balances. Both nations have eyed a $500 billion bilateral trade target by 2030, though talks stalled earlier over access to India’s agricultural and dairy markets.
Trade between the two countries hit a record $132.2 billion in the fiscal year ending March 2025, with U.S. imports from India up 11.6% to $86.51 billion and exports to India rising 8% to $45.69 billion. A finalized deal would build on this momentum, creating jobs and enhancing supply chains that favor American innovation and production.
Trump’s recent comments reflect optimism, calling Modi a “great friend” amid softened rhetoric. The agreement’s details might get the green light at the upcoming ASEAN summit, though attendance from both leaders remains unconfirmed. Sensitive sectors like agriculture and energy still require top-level approval, but the framework appears solid.
For American workers and businesses, this deal represents a win: lower barriers for allies who play by fair rules, while turning the screws on regimes that threaten global stability. As energy markets evolve, U.S. producers could fill the void left by Russian oil, securing a more prosperous future rooted in strong partnerships.
OK, but Russia oil will still get to market, as it should. Otherwise world oil prices would rise.
I am a Trump supporter.