Will Mike Johnson Keep His Job Today?

(The Epoch Times)—House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has only one goal on the first day of the new Congress: keeping his job and tamping down a potential Republican mutiny.

On Jan. 3 at 12 p.m. ET, the 119th Congress will have its first sitting. Its first order of business is to choose a speaker: No other official business, including the Jan. 6 certification of President-elect Donald Trump’s election victory, can take place prior to the election of a speaker.

In order to keep the gavel, Johnson will need to win a majority of votes in the full House, though the threshold varies based on how many seats are vacant and how many lawmakers actually take part in the vote.

If the full House votes, as is likely, Johnson will need 218 Republicans to vote for him—a tall order, given that Republicans enter with 219 seats, and at least one Republican outright opposes him. One seat, that of Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), is currently vacant, bringing the total of the full House to 434 members.

Johnson is favored to keep his position—but that could be easier said than done. Even with President-elect Donald Trump’s backing, several House Republicans have said publicly that they’re undecided or outright opposed to giving Johnson another turn with the gavel.

The situation is reminiscent of the start of the previous 118th Congress, in which it took five days and 15 ballots to name Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) as speaker. Like Johnson, McCarthy faced questions about his conservative credentials and establishment ties.

Johnson enters the day in a stronger position—but far from a certain one.

And Democrats have made clear that, in spite of their May vote to save Johnson from a motion to vacate brought by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), they won’t be bailing the speaker out this time.
“There will be no Democrats available to save him,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told MSNBC.

Still, Johnson has said he’s optimistic about his chances.

“We’re going to get this done,“ Johnson told Fox News. ”We cannot afford any palace drama here. We have got to get the Congress started, which begins tomorrow, and we have to get immediately to work. …We have to stay unified. The American people gave us a mandate.”

Normally, a handful of GOP dissenters wouldn’t be much of a problem for a would-be speaker: Few Republican speakers ever achieve unanimous support from their ideologically diverse conference.

This time, in the incoming Congress, the narrow Republican majority means that every defection is potentially crippling to Johnson, who can spare no more than one GOP opponent.

So far, one Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), has expressed hardline opposition to Johnson’s bid, saying in a post on X, “On January 3rd, 2025, I won’t be voting for Mike Johnson.

“I hope my colleagues will join me because history will not give America another ‘do-over,’” Massie said, comparing Johnson to former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), who clashed openly with the president-elect during his first term.

Mounting Reservations

Some Republicans have also expressed reservations. They feel that Johnson failed to gain enough wins during his first term and have condemned his decisions on government funding and other legislation.

Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) was the second Republican to indicate concerns about Johnson.

“I remain undecided, as do a number of my colleagues, because we saw so many of the failures last year that we are concerned about that might limit or inhibit our ability to advance the president’s agenda,” Roy told Fox Business on Dec. 31.

Members of the House Freedom Caucus could be a particular problem for Johnson. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the influential caucus, told The Epoch Times that they had a meeting about the vote on Jan. 2, but no details of the meeting were disclosed.

Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the House Freedom Caucus’s chairman, is undecided, his spokesperson Anna Adamian told The Epoch Times on Dec. 31.

Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) indicated he’s in the same boat.

“I haven’t publicly or privately committed yet,” Biggs told Fox News on Dec. 30. “I do want to speak with the speaker just to see what his plans are, because there are some issues that I think need to be worked out, specifically dealing with the budget issues.”

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) also hasn’t made a decision about her vote yet, she told reporters in the Capitol on Jan. 2.

In an interview on “Fox and Friends” earlier the same week, Spartz hinted at the reasons for her reservations, suggesting that she was unimpressed by Johnson’s record in his first term.

“Unfortunately we will not be able to deliver on President Trump’s agenda … if we don’t have a Speaker with courage, vision, and a plan,” Spartz said.

Greene could also come out against Johnson, with whom she’s had a handful of high-profile clashes in the past.

In November, Greene told The Epoch Times she wouldn’t mount a challenge to Johnson, citing the lack of declared challengers and the conference’s unanimous decision to nominate him. That position could also change as pressure mounts from other Republicans.