A few weeks ago, I published an article where I explored the potential for another China-driven rally in gold, one that could quickly push prices to $3,000. My thesis was rooted in the observation that China’s futures traders were the driving force behind gold’s explosive $400 surge this past spring. However, these traders had been dormant for the past five months as the yuan price of gold stagnated. I proposed that a technical breakout in the yuan price of gold could trigger a resurgence similar to the powerful rally we saw in the spring. Since sharing that idea, I’ve been watching for a breakout in the yuan price of gold—and it appears that moment has arrived.
Let’s start by examining the chart of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures, the primary driver behind the gold frenzy in March and April. Since the April peak, prices have been oscillating within a well-defined trading range. However, in a promising turn of events, the contract has recently experienced a technical breakout as Chinese traders returned from the Mid-Autumn Festival, which had closed the country’s financial markets for three days. Although the breakout has been tame so far, with tepid trading volume, there’s significant potential for it to gain momentum—especially as volume continues to pick up after a lull earlier this month.
The international spot price of gold in yuan (which is distinct from the mainland China gold price) had also been trading within a well-defined range since April. Its recent breakout lends further credibility to the breakout seen in Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures.
The U.S. dollar price of gold has also been on a strong upward trend, breaking through two key resistance levels in the past month and a half:
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