The US has a President-elect with power to wield. A likely Republican trifecta would strengthen President-elect Donald Trump’s new administration across domestic and global affairs. Along with the White House, the GOP will have control of the Senate and (probably) the House of Representatives.
President-elect Trump himself has declared he has a “mandate”, although he will be subject to the checks and balances inherent in the US political system. The Supreme Court, with six of its nine justices appointed by a Republican president, is also likely to be broadly supportive of his policy agenda.
A Trump administration means radical changes for tariffs on imports, climate policy and international affairs. For the energy and natural resources sectors, the implications are many. A pathway nearer to our new delayed transition scenario is now more likely. Here are our team’s initial thoughts.
Power and renewables and decarbonisation:
The US will backtrack on net zero. Bipartisan support for measures in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) means that a full repeal is unlikely, but the expiration of tax cuts passed in President Trump’s first term will force Congress to re-examine incentives for low-carbon energy.
Near-term growth expectations for wind, solar, battery storage and EVs rely on IRA incentives, including 10-plus years of eligibility for production and investment tax credits. Even if Congress doesn’t end those credits, various elements of the IRA – including tax credit timelines, financing mechanisms or bonus adders – are likely to be removed or modified. […]
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