The Federal Reserve’s policy-making arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), will likely shift from the aggressive interest rate cut during its September meeting to a moderate cut in its November meeting, to be held on Nov. 6 and Nov. 7. However, the path to lower interest rates remains to be determined, as mixed data complicate the job of the nation’s central bank.
As of Nov. 1, the CME’s FedWatch Tool, which monitors the likelihood of changes in the federal funds rate, pointed to a 98.9 percent probability of a 25 basis-point cut.
This probability has risen from 67.9 percent a month ago to 95.1 percent a week ago. At the same time, the likelihood of another sizable 50 basis-point cut, which occurred in September, dropped from 4.9 percent a week ago to 1.1 percent on Nov. 1.
The forecasts from market experts align with the FedWatch’s forecast of a moderate 25 basis-point cut.
“The Federal Reserve is likely to err on the side of caution and reduce interest rates by another 25 basis points in November, given the difficulties of accurately interpreting incoming labor market data,” Noah Yosif, chief economist at the American Staffing Association, told The Epoch Times in an email. […]
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