Confidence among American consumers fell in February to a seven-month low as inflation expectations surged, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, underscoring household concerns that price pressures may take longer to dissipate.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 67.8 from January’s 71.1, the lowest since July 2024, according to data released on Feb. 7.
“The decrease was pervasive, with Republicans, Independents, and Democrats all posting sentiment declines from January, along with consumers across age and wealth groups,” Joanne Hsu, director of Surveys of Consumers, said in a statement.
Meanwhile, households’ expectations for inflation over the next year jumped to 4.3 percent—the highest level since November 2023—up from 3.3 percent in January. Over the next five years, they anticipate inflation averaging 3.3 percent, marking the highest reading since June 2008, up slightly from 3.2 percent last month.
Hsu noted that a one-point rise in one-year inflation expectations is rare, occurring only five times in 14 years. The surge could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring inflation back to its 2 percent target and reinforces the narrative that the central bank will hold interest rates higher for longer. On the day that the University of Michigan’s inflation expectations data was released, the probability that the Fed will holds rates steady at its next meeting in March jumped from 84 percent to 92 percent, per the CME Fed Watch tool, bolstering the higher-for-longer view. […]
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